WTXS31 PGTW 140900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 78.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 78.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 10.3S 76.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.7S 74.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.8S 73.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 16.3S 73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 18.9S 71.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 21.2S 69.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 22.6S 66.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 9.0S 78.0E. 14NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 6-HR MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH DEEP RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140443Z 25-KM RESOLUTION ASCAT BULLSEYE PASS SHOWING 45-KT WIND BARBS ALONG THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LLC. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG DUAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 01S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE STEERING STR, THEN MORE WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR RECEDES. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 75KTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST WILL PRIMARILY ERODE THE CYCLONE TOWARD DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72. AFTERWARD, THEY SIGNIFICANTLY SPREAD AND BIFURCATE WITH A CLUSTER TO THE LEFT THAT INCLUDES NAVGEM, UEMN, AND EGRR, SUGGESTING A RECURVE/EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO. THE CLUSTER TO THE RIGHT THAT INCLUDES GFS, AEMN, AND EEMN SUGGEST A WEAK VORTEX THAT DRIFTS WITH THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR- TO MID-PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID OVER THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS; AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION THAT IS LINED UP WITH THE CLUSTER ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// NNNN