WTXS31 PGTW 140300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 002// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 7.4S 79.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.4S 79.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 9.0S 77.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 11.4S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.8S 74.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.6S 73.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 17.7S 72.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 19.8S 71.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.6S 70.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 7.8S 79.1E. 14NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALICIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND THAT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES PRESENT IN A 132250Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW, FMEE) AND ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.7 (39 KTS). TC ALICIA REMAINS IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUFFICIENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) (>20 KILOJOULES PER SQUARE CENTIMETER). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS FURTHER INDICATES STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND A POINT SOURCE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TC 01S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS STEERING RIDGE, TC ALICIA WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH TAU 36 AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70 KTS BY THIS TIME DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE VWS, SST AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, HIGHER THAN IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AFTER THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE RIDGE AXIS AND SHIFT TO A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. ADDITIONALLY, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO 60 KTS BY TAU 72 AND 55 KTS BY TAU 96. AFTER TAU 96, VWS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE SST WILL BECOME COOL (< 26 CELSIUS) AND UNFAVORABLE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120 WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED FALLING TO 35 KTS BY THIS TIME. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS INITIALLY IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS OF 154 NM AT THIS TIME. THIS SPREAD INCREASES AS TRACK GUIDANCE BIFURCATES WITH ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS INCREASING TO 873 NM BY TAU 120. THIS HIGH SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE LATER TAUS LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE WESTWARD LYING MEMBERS OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE BIFURCATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900, 141500Z, 142100, AND 150300Z.// NNNN