WTXS21 PGTW 130930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120921ZNOV20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.0S 84.8E TO 8.8S 78.4E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
130600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 5.4S
84.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.0S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 711 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER A TIGHTENING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130803Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 130408Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS 
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH A LARGELY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD 
CONTAINING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL 
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOL IN 12 TO 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
120930).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140930Z.//
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