ABIO10 PGTW 131000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131000Z-131800ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130921ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 5.0S 87.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.4S 84.2E, APPROXIMATELY 711 NM 
EAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS WELL ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER A TIGHTENING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 130803Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING 
INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 130408Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS 
SHOWS A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC WITH A LARGELY ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD 
CONTAINING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92S WILL 
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOL IN 12 TO 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
130930) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPDATED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) WITH TCFA 
REISSUE.//
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