ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZNOV2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.7S 89.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.0S 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 925
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. A PARTIAL 121219Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC FROM ALL SIDES. INVEST 92S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD, INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN
12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23
TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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