ABPW10 PGTW 090600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/090600Z-100600ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090151ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081351ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 09NOV20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 24W (ETAU) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 090300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.1N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 131.6E, APPROXIMATELY 315 
NM NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIAMTED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EVIDENT SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING IN 
FROM THE NORTH. A 090024Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC WITHOUT OTHER 
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. A 090116Z METOP-C BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS 
REVEALS A DISORGANIZED, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED, LLCC WITH A LARGE AREA 
OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. 93W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 
10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD; HOWEVER, MODELS DISAGREE SLIGHTLY 
ON HOW QUICKLY 93W WILL INTENSIFY, WITH GFS AND NAVGEM INTENSIFYING 
IT IN THE SHORT TERM (06 TO 18 HOURS) WHILE UKMO AND ECMWF DEPICT A 
SLOWER INTENSIFICATION PROCESS, BRINGING IT TO WARNING THRESHOLD 
FURTHER OUT (18 TO 36 HOURS). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 081400) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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