WTPN21 PGTW 081400 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 134.4E TO 13.1N 129.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 111 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 080952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SIMILARLY REVEALS THE TIGHTENING LLCC WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 081151Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN VERY BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091400Z.// NNNN