ABPW10 PGTW 081430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/081430Z-090600ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071451ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081321ZNOV2020//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9N 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 117.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
209 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PUERTA PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) NOW ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT LEAVES THE FRICTIONAL 
ENVIRONMENT OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 072243Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD 
WITH MINIMAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 111 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN 
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 080952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
SIMILARLY REVEALS THE TIGHTENING LLCC WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING 
FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 081151Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT 
PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN VERY BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF 
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT 
THAT 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF C (WTPN21 PGTW 081330) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
HIGH.//
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