ABPW10 PGTW 080730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/080730Z-090600ZNOV2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071352ZNOV2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071451ZNOV2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A
/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07NOV20 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (ATSANI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 118.6E, APPROXIMATELY 219 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, 
TAIWAN, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 071500) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9N 120.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 119.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
152 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION 
BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) NOW ABLE TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT LEAVES THE FRICTIONAL 
ENVIRONMENT OF THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. A 072243Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION. 92W IS CURRENTLY IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-
30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-
20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 92W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD 
WITH MINIMAL FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS IT CROSSES THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
071500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 132 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY BROAD, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) LARGELY OBSCURED BY FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME 
INDICATION OF POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH. A 080430Z 
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REINFORCES THIS PERCEPTION, 
REVEALING FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC WITH 
FRAGMENTED BANDING TO THE NORTH. INVEST 93W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT 
93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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