WTPN21 PHNC 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97E) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021451Z NOV 20// AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 021500)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 114.1W TO 16.6N 119.6W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 114.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 111.5W, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 114.5E, APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF CLARION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) FROM THE EAST AND SOUTH. A 031123Z SSMI F-15 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE SAME FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. 97E IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97E WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS, WITH MINIMAL LONG TERM INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 021500). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 041500Z.// NNNN