WTPN32 PGTW 280900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E. 28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND HAS BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A REMNANT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND CORROBORATED BY TRIANGULATION OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDING ONE FROM DA NANG AIRPORT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND CONSISTENT WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS, PLUS INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN