ABPW10 PGTW 271130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271130Z-280600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270752ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271051ZOCT2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 27OCT20 0600Z, TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
13.5N 113.4E, APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, 
VIETNAM, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 110 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 135 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN32 PGTW 270900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.4N 141.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
234 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) 
DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AND TURNING AROUND AN 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 270656Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS LOWER LEVEL BANDING WITH DEEP CONVECTION TO 
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS AND CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW 
(10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 99W WILL GRADUALLY TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
TO THE NORTH, STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 271100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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