WTPN31 PGTW 252100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 028 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251800Z --- NEAR 17.7N 107.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 17.7N 107.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 17.5N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 16.7N 103.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 252100Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 106.8E. 25OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY-DECAYING CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON A 251740Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 1.5 (25 KNOTS), WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE WEAK OVERALL STRUCTURE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW. TD 19W SLOWED BRIEFLY BUT IS NOW TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. TD 19W WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF VIETNAM. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 11 FEET. REFER TO TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN