ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240151ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/240152ZOCT2020//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24OCT20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 17.7N 113.6E, APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 24OCT20 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 131.2E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
KOROR, AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 240300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.3N 153.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 79NM 
EAST OF FANANU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
240334Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED BLOOMS OF 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 
232201Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A VERY CONFUSED, WEAK WIND FIELD, 
DOMINATED BY 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS. INVEST 99W IS IN A MODERATELY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY 
UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEFORE TURNING ONTO 
A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AND INTENSIFYING TO WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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