ABPW10 PGTW 240200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN 
AND/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/240200Z-240600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZOCT2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT20 1800Z, TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
17.8N 114.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.5N 131.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 1.B.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.5N 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.3N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 79NM 
EAST OF FANANU, FSM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A 
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) 
BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W 
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
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