ABPW10 PGTW 231430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231430Z-240600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZOCT2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT20 0600Z, TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
18.0N 115.2E, APPROXIMATELY 264 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.7N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
261 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231221Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WHICH IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN A 231130Z ASCAT PASS.  
98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 231400) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 7.5N 156.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N  154.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
132 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH 
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A 
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) 
BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W 
WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
NNNN