WTPN21 PGTW 231400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 98W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.2N 133.2E TO 13.4N 128.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.4N 132.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.7N 134.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 132.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
261 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231221Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT BUILDING CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WHICH IS CLEARLY DEFINED IN A 231130Z ASCAT PASS.  
98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
WESTWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
241400Z.//
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