ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230151ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23OCT20 0000Z, TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
17.8N 115.3E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, 
AND HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 230300) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.3N 136.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
190 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 
A 230115Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT SCATTERED 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO AN EXPOSED, SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, 
LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (30 TO 31 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH ONLY 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT INDICATE AN 
INCREASE IN INTENSIFICATION BEYOND 24 HOURS WITH A WESTWARD TRACK 
TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N 
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK, 
INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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