ABPW10 PGTW 221530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/221530Z-230600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22OCT20 1200Z, TYPHOON 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
17.4N 116.2E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, AND 
HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 70 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 85 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, CONSOLIDATING 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 221241Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE REVEALS POCKETS OF FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE 
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL 
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE 
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS LOW.//
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