ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZOCT2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200152ZOCT2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20OCT20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.6N 124.9E, APPROXIMATELY 234 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED 
AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 24.5N 138.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 138.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
158 NM WEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) PRODUCING PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. A 200404Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS THE TIGHT LLCC WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD 
AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 192319Z 
METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS ON THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. 97W IS CURRENTLY IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW BEING INHIBITED BY UNFAVORABLE (20 TO 25 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 
28 TO 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL 
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW 
200200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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