ABIO10 PGTW 171800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/171800Z-181800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.9N 74.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 67.7E, APPROXIMATELY 296 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAKENING CONVECTION AND A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE EXPOSED. A 171228Z SSMIS 
91GHZ SATELLITE PARTIAL IMAGE DEPICTS AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. 92A IS IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT 
IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MARGINAL WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 
MODERATE TO STRONG (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92A WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD 
TOWARDS THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
AND LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY GLOBAL MODELS, THE POTENTIAL 
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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