ABPW10 PGTW 170600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 170600Z-180600ZOCT2020// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP FLARING CONVECTION BEING SHEARED SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 170139Z AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS NO EVIDENCE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE LLC. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MOVING OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.6N 142.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.5N 141.0E, APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. OF NOTE, THIS NEW LOCATION IS APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS LOCATION. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER A WEAK, DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 170328Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLC. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. NNNN