ABPW10 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/161500Z-170600ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.2N 112.4E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.5N 111.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
237 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED 
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161043Z 
MHS NOAA-19 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE AREA LARGELY DEVOID OF 
DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
(20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSETTING GOOD WESTWARD UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION BEFORE MOVING OVER 
VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.6N 
142.2E, APPROXIMATELY 463 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP 
CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE NORTHWEST AND 
NORTHEAST OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 161124Z MHS METOP-
B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SCATTERED FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE LLC. A 161123Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT PASS 
SHOWS A WEAK, SLIGHTLY OBLONG LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE 
SOUTHEAST. 96W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD 
WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS 
BEFORE BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT NEARS LUZON, POTENTIALLY 
REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(3) AS A LOW. 
UPDATED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS DISSIPATED.//
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