ABPW10 PGTW 160730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/160730Z-170600ZOCT2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160651ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.0N 118.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
242 NM EAST OF DANANG, VIETNAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A NEAR FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 
160201Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ REVEALS LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZED DEEP 
CONVECTION WITH A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 
160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SMALL, WEAK CIRCULATION EMBEDDED 
IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROADER, WEAK CIRCULATION. THE ASCAT 
PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF 94W WITH 
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER (5 TO 10 KNOT) WINDS TO THE SOUTH. 94W IS 
CURRENLTY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DISORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28 
TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL REMAIN LARGELY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 
COUPLE DAYS WITH SOME SLIGHT CONSOLIDATION, BEFORE CONTINUING WEST, 
MOVING OVER VIETNAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW. SEE 
REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 160700) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.5N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG VIETNAM. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 160605Z 
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) LARGELY DEVOID OF OVERHEAD DEEP CONVECTION, WITH 
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BEING SHEARED 
TO THE SOUTH. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, BROAD 
LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH 
PERIPHERY. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD LLC WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE, 
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO 
LOW. ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) AS LOW.//
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