WTPN21 PGTW 160700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160651ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 150700). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM WEST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. A 
150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN 
THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS 
TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH 
GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE OUTFLOW AND MODERATE 
(20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 
CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST, ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH 
MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS 
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
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