ABIO10 PGTW 151800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN /OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZOCT2020// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 75.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 74.1E, APPROXIMATELY 94 NM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) ATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 151336Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT 92A INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS OVER THE ARABIAN SEA AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD TOWARD THE ARABIAN PENINSULA OVER THE FOLLOWING THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN