WTPN21 PGTW 150700 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140651Z OCT 20// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140700)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 118.7E TO 15.2N 111.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY 154 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST- SOUTHWEST. A 150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST, ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 140700). 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 160700Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED AMPN LINE WITH APPROPRIATE REFERENCE. // NNNN