WTPN21 PGTW 150700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W) CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140651Z OCT 20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 
140700)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 118.7E TO 15.2N 111.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 118.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.4E, APPROXIMATELY
154 NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST. A 150108Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT CIRCULATION
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER CONVERGENT AREA WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 20 TO
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE EAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH GENERALLY STRAIGHT-LINE FLOW PROVIDED MODERATE
OUTFLOW AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 29 TO 30 CELSIUS. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W WILL TRACK GENERALLY WEST,
ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
140700).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160700Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED AMPN LINE WITH 
APPROPRIATE REFERENCE.
//
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