WTPN21 PGTW 150700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140651ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.0N 118.7E TO 15.2N 111.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0N 118.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.6N 124.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
203 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140101Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 
94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W 
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL 
PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 
140700).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
160700Z.//
NNNN