WTPN21 PGTW 140700 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 123.6E TO 15.0N 115.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 124.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140101Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150700Z.// NNNN