WTPN21 PGTW 140700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 123.6E TO 15.0N 115.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 123.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.6N 124.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 123.2E, APPROXIMATELY 203 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 140101Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A CONSOLIDATING LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, 
GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES BEFORE CONSOLIDATING 
FURTHER IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
150700Z.//
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