WTPN21 PHNC 130030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF 19E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120021ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC 120030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.2N 108.1W TO 20.5N 112.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.2N 108.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 19E) PREVIOUSLY 
LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 108.4W, 
APPROXIMATELY 170NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOW 
CONSOLIDATING LOW SYSTEM WITH A LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED BY WEAK FLARING CONVECTION. A 122343Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWS THE DEEP, ALBEIT FRAGMENTED, CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL  WIND SHEAR (< 
10KTS), MARGINAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(29C-30C). GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE 
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS  ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THEPOTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A  SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
140030Z.//
NNNN