ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.3N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 106 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1212354Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT A POCKET OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 121613Z ASCAT-B PASS 
REVEALS A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF 
20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH A FEW 30-KT WIND 
BARBS UNDER THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91B 
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH IMMINENT 
LANDFALL NEAR 130000Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO IMMINENT LANDFALL AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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