WTPN21 PHNC 120030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (REMNANTS OF 19E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
190 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.9N 107.6W TO 19.1N 112.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 111800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.5N 108.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 19E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6N 107.5W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 108.0W, APPROXIMATELY 189NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION. AN 112037Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. AN 111630Z BULLSEYE ASCAT-A PASS SHOWS A WELL 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (< 15KTS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SST (29C-30C). 
GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL 
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130030Z.
//
NNNN