ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
/INDIAN/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N 
86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111248Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED BY 
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FURTHERMORE, AN 111143Z 
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH 
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91B IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KTS), AND WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY 
INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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