WTPN21 PHNC 091000 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZOCT20// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 125.4W TO 16.2N 128.9W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 090900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 126.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.7N 126.9W, APPROXIMATELY 993 NM WESTSOUTH-WEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090526Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT INVEST 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 96E WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 101000Z.// NNNN