WTPN21 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 125.4W TO 16.2N 128.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 126.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.7N 126.9W, APPROXIMATELY 993 NM WESTSOUTH-WEST OF CABO SAN 
LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
090526Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL 
POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 
INVEST 96E WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
101000Z.//
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