WTPN21 PHNC 050800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95E)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 145 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 104.5W TO 13.4N 107.2W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 105.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.5N 105.0W, APPROXIMATELY 553 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 050235Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 95E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95E WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NVGM SHOWS 95E TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060800Z.// NNNN