ABPW10 PGTW 040600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS 040600Z-050600ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 21.8N 139.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 
201 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION 
IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. A 040404Z AMSR2 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS BUILDING FLARING CONVECTION OVER A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION. THE WIND FIELD DEPICTED IN A 032351Z ASCAT-A PASS 
REVEALS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS ELONGATED ALONG A 
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS WITH 10-15 KT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND 
25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED > 100 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM CENTER. INVEST 90W IS LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR 
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (<15 KTS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE 
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF 90W, WITH GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODEL 
DEPICTING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN TRACK POSSIBILITIES, WITH A 
BIFURCATION IN THE ECMWF AND GEFS ENSEMBLES THAT RANGE FROM EAST OF 
HONSHU TO NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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