WTPN31 PGTW 292100 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WARNING NR 013A DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 15W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 38.0N 158.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 21 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 38.0N 158.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 40.5N 162.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 41.7N 169.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 38.6N 159.4E. 29SEP20. TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 802 NM EAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD AND ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES APPARENT IN THE EIR LOOP THAT ARE FEEDING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND IN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/3.5 (PGTW) AND T3.5/4.0 (RJTD). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO HIGH (40+ KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, COLD (<25 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HAS ENTERED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND WILL COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 23 FEET. 2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: ADDED DISCUSSION OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND STORM STATUS TO REMARKS.// NNNN