WTPN21 PHNC 281430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 104.4W TO 13.9N 107.3W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 281200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.6N 104.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
13.6N 104.5W, APPROXIMATELY 480 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281206Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 94E IS 
EXPERIENCING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94E WILL CONTINUE TO 
INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24-36HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
291430Z.//
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