ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZSEP2020//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/280151ZSEP2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 28SEP20 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 15W (KUJIRA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 26.7N 153.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, 
AND HAD TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 280300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
21.3N 146.9E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. 
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A COMPACT 
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 282233Z METOP-A PASS INDICATES A POSSIBLE 
CIRCULATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SHARP TROUGH WITH 20-25KT 
WINDS IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT WITH 10-15KT WINDS ELSEWHERE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 98W IS EXPERIENCING LOW 
(<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM 
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS DO NOT RESOLVE INVEST 
98W WELL AND THEREFORE DO NOT INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM 
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK 
POLEWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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