WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W (PABUK) WARNING 
NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 10.5N 110.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 242 NM EAST OF HO CHI MINH CITY, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM IN 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA JUST EAST OF VIETNAM CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE AS THE 
DISORGANIZED MAIN CONVECTION IS SHEARED FURTHER NORTHWARD, LEAVING A 
FULLY EXPOSED, RAGGED, AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE 
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE FULLY 
EXPOSED LLC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED EIR CONVECTIVE 
SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW GREATLY 
OFFSET BY HIGH RELATIVE VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   RJTD: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 31 KTS AT 242330Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 31 KTS AT 242330Z
   CIMSS DPRNT: 31 KTS AT 242330Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD PABUK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST.
THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, MAINLY DUE TO HIGH VWS, WILL LEAD TO
GRADUAL DECAY AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO A MERE 85NM BY TAU 24; HOWEVER, DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.  


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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