WDPN32 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (MAN-YI) WARNING 
NR 042//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 113.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 317 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME MOSTLY EXPOSED AND EMBEDDED IN
THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY COLD
SURGE AS THE CENTRAL CLOUD COVER HAS GREATLY ERODED AND SHEARED
NORTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MOSTLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF
WEAKENING TREND IN AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED ESTIMATES. ANALYSIS
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
COOLING SST, AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY THE
STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 42 KTS AT 190219Z
   CIMSS ADT: 33 KTS AT 190540Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25+ KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 25W WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 850MB RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER ERODE THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH;
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE POTENTIAL EARLY DISSIPATION, THERE IS ONLY
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN