WDPN31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (YINXING) 
WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.1N 109.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 131 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A COMPACT,
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF VIETNAM, WITH AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE SURROUNDED BY WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM VIETNAM CONFIRMS THE LLCC REMAINS OFF THE
COAST AND THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE DISPLACED FAIRLY
FAR FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI AND RADAR DEPICTIONS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, BASED ON THE AVAILABLE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE FIXES NOTED ABOVE AS WELL AS A SHIP
OBSERVATION ABOUT 70NM TO THE SOUTH, WHICH WAS REPORTING WINDS OF
30 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE, WITH
HIGH EASTERLY SHEAR, RELATIVELY COOL SSTS AND LACK OF STRONG
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AS WELL AS WEDGE OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR OVER TOP OF
THE SYSTEM.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM. 


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS AIDT: 32 KTS AT 120220Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 30 KTS AT 120630Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK WESTWARD
   OTHER FACTORS: PROXIMITY TO LAND AND DRY AIR.

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
WILL MOVE ONSHORE IN THE VICINITY OF GUY NHON, VIETNAM WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SLOWLY MOVING FURTHER INLAND, THE SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN INFLUENCES AND DISSIPATE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 


MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE BOTH IN STRONG
AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INLAND IN THE NEAR-TERM,
CONTINUE TRACKING TOWARDS THE WEST AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SET CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEANS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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