WDPN32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (SONCA)       
WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.6N 110.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 153 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED, DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. A 141036Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN ELONGATED LLC WITH
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EIR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 22W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TO WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND
WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH MEDIUM OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. AFTER
TAU 12, GUIDANCE DIVERGES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND. RELIABLE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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