WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 35.8N 144.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 227 NM EAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECAY AS EVIDENCED BY UNRAVELING RAIN
BANDS AND WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES HAVE
ELONGATED WITH EXPOSURE TO THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON A CLUSTER OF
WARM CENTRAL PIXELS IN THE EIR LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH 
FEATURE IN THE 1049Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
OF 65KTS IS AVERAGED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FROM THE AGENCY AND 
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE WITH INCREASING 
VWS, COOLING SSTS, AND THE INFLUX OF COLD DRY AIR AT THE LOWER 
LEVELS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 72 KTS AT 010840Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND THE UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 
12, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 30 WILL 
TRANSFORM INTO A 40-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS 
IT PASSES SOUTHEAST OF THE KURIL ISLANDS. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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