WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (KAJIKI) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 106.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 151 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 11 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 32 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND ANIMATED RADAR 
IMAGERY DEPICT A 13NM EYE, WITH EXTENSIVE SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. AS INDICATED IN A 250617Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING AN 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH A SMALL INNER CORE SURROUNDED BY A MOAT 
FEATURE AND DEVELOPING SECONDARY EYEWALL. THE CENTER IS LOCATED ABOUT 
18NM OFF THE COAST OF VIETNAM AND ABOUT 16NM EAST OF HA TINH, VIETNAM 
(WMO NUMBER 48846), WHICH REPORTED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 16 KNOTS AT 
250600Z WITH SLP NEAR 989.6MB. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS SITE IS ONLY 
REPORTING 3-HOURLY OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY 
AND TRACK DIRECTLY OVER HA TINH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS 
ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE 
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK ADJUSTED WITH SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   DEMS: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 84 KTS AT 250535Z
   CIMSS ADT: 87 KTS AT 250530Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 78 KTS AT 250530Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 77 KTS AT 250600Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
   OTHER FACTORS: INTERACTION WITH LAND

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON (TY) WILL MAKE LANDFALL AND TRACK WESTWARD 
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO VIETNAM AND LAOS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING 
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHERN LAOS.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. 
RELIABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN TIGHT AGREEMENT SHOWING RAPID 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 36. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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