WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 11W (NOUL) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.4N 115.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 85 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 50 NM EAST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
COMPACT CYCLONE WITH SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN ALL
QUADRANTS AND A RAGGED BUT CLEARING EYE APPROACHING IMMINENT
LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG. ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF THE EYE AND SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTIVE BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CENTER OF THE WELL-DEFINED EYE IN RADAR
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS AT 251800Z IS ASSESSED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AGENCY DVORAK FIXES
AND CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE BRIEFLY FLIRTED WITH 90 KTS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED AS HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE
IMMINENT LANDFALL.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 82 KTS AT 251800Z
   CIMSS ADT: 63 KTS AT 251800Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 71 KTS AT 251800Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 93 KTS AT 251730Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 87 KTS AT 251800Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE CENTER OF TYPHOON (TY) 11W (NOUL) IS
APPROACHING LANDFALL IMMINENTLY, APPROXIMATELY 40 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF HONG KONG. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS INLAND OVER MAINLAND CHINA. THE INTENSITY WILL
SIMULTANEOUSLY RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF THE LAND INTERACTION.
TY 11W WILL BE FULLY DISSIPATED OVER LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MODEL DISCUSSION: THE NUMERICAL TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE TRACK INLAND AND ASSOCIATED RAPID
WEAKENING. THE JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FOLLOW THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUSES WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 00-72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 00-72 HR: HIGH//
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