WDPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) WARNING 
NR 004//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.1N 110.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 236 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS PARTIALLY
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
(TD) 03W. FLARING CONVECTION CONCEALS THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE
LLCC, WHILE UNDER THE IMPACTS FROM AN INCREASING (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ADDITIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS 
INDICATE 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS, INCLUDING WEAK EQUATORWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
AND 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) RANGING FROM 29 TO 30 C. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS ASSIGNED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL TURNING CENTER FEATURE WITHIN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 25 KTS IS ALSO ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM 
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE AND CORROBORATED BY 
A COMBINATION OF AUTOMATED FIXES LISTED BELOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 32 KTS AT 252040Z
   CIMSS AIDT: 34 KTS AT 252040Z
   CIMSS D-MINT: 25 KTS AT 252229Z
   CIMSS D-PRINT: 27 KTS AT 260100Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 15-20 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CROSSING OVER THE HAINAN ISLAND AND IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL ON THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. POST-
LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER TERRAIN, WITH 
DISSIPATION AND INTENSITY DECAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA ANTICIPATED BY 
TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE EXHIBITS STRONG
CONSENSUS, WITH CROSS-TRACK ERROR SPREAD OF 30 NM AT TAU 12,
INCREASING TO 165 NM AT DISSIPATION, REDUCED HOWEVER TO JUST 40 NM,
IF EXCLUDING THE PRIMARY OUTLIER - NAVGEM. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS
CONSISTENT, WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONSENSUS MEMBERS MAINTAINING
INITIAL INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS, FOLLOWED BY PROGRESSIVE 
WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION. THE JTWC FORECAST ALIGNS CLOSELY WITH THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS IN BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
NNNN