WDPN31 PGTW 141500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) 
WARNING NR 008//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 247 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
OVER A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 141016Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE 
(20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, LENDING 
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD 03W IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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