WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.3N 140.6E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 98 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF IWO TO
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 38 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS WEAKENING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TY 02W AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT
WITH A MID-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. INNER CORE CONVECTION HAS
COLLAPSED, WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING MSI AND SUGGESTS THAT
THE VORTEX HAS BECOME DECOUPLED, WITH THE CONVECTION REMOVED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND WIND
OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO TO (RJAW) INDICATING WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 75
KNOTS AT CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE EAST-SOUTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 67 KTS AT 142340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 22-23 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 02W IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE STR. WITH THE COLLAPSE
OF ITS INNER CORE CONVECTION AND THE VERTICAL DECOUPLING OF THE
VORTEX, TY 02W IS BEGINNING TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
AS THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS JAPAN INTERACTS WITH TY
02W, VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES COOL. DRY AIR IS ALREADY WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE VORTEX. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BE
COMPLETE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM IS FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
ONLY A 100 NM SPREAD AT TAU 24, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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