WDPS31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 22P (PAUL) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 15.3S 156.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 618 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL, STRUGGLING
SYSTEM IN THE CORAL SEA THAT HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH INTO
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AS EVIDENCED BY CONVECTIVE
FRAGMENTATION AND UNRAVELING OF THE LOW LEVEL WRAP. THE EIR LOOP
ALSO SHOWS LOW COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS LINES FEEDING IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC IN THE EIR LOOP AND ON THE 111715Z
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUITE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE 6-HR DEGRADATION.
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SST AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AT THE LOW LEVELS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE ORIENTED NW-SE
AND ANCHORED TO THE EAST. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 111720Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC PAUL IS FORECAST TO LOOP WESTWARD AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ASSUMES
STEERING. THE WESTWARD STORM MOTION WILL RESULT IN AN EVEN STRONGER
RELATIVE VWS. THIS, PLUS THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD DRY AIR
INTRUSION WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, POSSIBLY
SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LOOPING AND WESTWARD TRAJECTORY BUT GIVEN THE VARIABILITY
INTRODUCED BY A COMPETING STEERING MECHANISM AND THE WORSENING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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